PREVENT Calculator: 10- and 30-Year Heart Risk

How this is calculated

PREVENT (Predicting Risk of cardiovascular disease EVENTs) is a set of equations from the American Heart Association, published in the journal Circulation (Khan et al., 2024). They estimate the chance of a first heart attack or stroke (atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease, ASCVD), of heart failure, and of either one (total cardiovascular disease). The 10-year estimate covers adults aged 30 to 79, the 30-year estimate adults aged 30 to 59. The 2026 ACC/AHA cholesterol guideline uses the 10-year PREVENT-ASCVD result to guide decisions about cholesterol-lowering treatment.

Each result comes from one equation per outcome, sex and time span. Your values are first centered and scaled: age in steps of 10 years from 55, non-HDL cholesterol (total minus HDL, converted to mmol/L) from 3.5, HDL cholesterol from 1.3 mmol/L in steps of 0.3, systolic blood pressure in steps of 20 mmHg with a bend at 110, kidney function (eGFR) with a bend at 60, and BMI with a bend at 30 for heart failure. Each value is multiplied by its published coefficient, together with several age interactions, and added up. The sum is the log-odds; the risk is e^x ÷ (1 + e^x). This page uses the base equations from the supplement of the original article. The optional add-ons for urine albumin, HbA1c and the social deprivation index are not included.

Worked example

The authors' own example: a 50-year-old woman with total cholesterol 200 mg/dL, HDL 45 mg/dL, systolic blood pressure 160 mmHg on treatment, diabetes, BMI 35 and eGFR 90, who does not smoke. Her 10-year risk is 14.7% for any cardiovascular disease, 9.2% for a heart attack or stroke and 8.1% for heart failure. Over 30 years the three risks are 53%, 35.4% and 39%.

How we checked it

The coefficients were read by script from the supplement spreadsheet of the article, not typed by hand. We then entered 22 test cases into the American Heart Association's online PREVENT calculator on October 26, 2026. All 114 results matched ours to one decimal place.

What the groups mean

The 2026 ACC/AHA dyslipidemia guideline sorts the 10-year PREVENT-ASCVD risk into four groups. They apply to adults 30 to 79 without known ASCVD whose LDL cholesterol is between 70 and 189 mg/dL.

Who should not use it

The American Heart Association says not to use PREVENT for people with known cardiovascular disease, with severe heart disease found on tests, with a pathogenic genetic variant for an inherited heart condition, with end-stage kidney disease, or with a life expectancy under one year.

Ranges and kidney function

The equations were built for age 30 to 79 years, total cholesterol 130 to 320 mg/dL, HDL cholesterol 20 to 100 mg/dL, systolic blood pressure 90 to 200 mmHg, BMI 18.5 to 39.9, eGFR 15 to 140 mL/min/1.73 m². If a value is outside its range, the calculator uses the closest allowed value and says so; the American Heart Association notes that this can over- or underestimate risk. If you only know your serum creatinine, the calculator works out eGFR with the 2021 CKD-EPI creatinine equation, the one the PREVENT authors used. Because ASCVD and heart failure are calculated separately, they can add up to more than the total.

PREVENT is a trademark of the American Heart Association. Calculator Institute is not affiliated with or endorsed by the American Heart Association.